"There Will Be Civil War": The Danger of Normalizing Violence

This month, we observed that those who, several months ago, were saying “there might be civil war” are now saying “there will be civil war.” The distinction is subtle, but important. Some commenters on far-right unmoderated sites who once described violence as a possibility, now see it is inevitable - urging others reading their comments to prepare for war. Data shows that Americans as a whole still reject mass violence, but the changes in rhetoric that we have seen signal a notable change in the worldview of extremists in digital spaces like Gab, GETTR, and Patriots.win.  

Even outside such groups and platforms, repeated exposure to such rhetoric can erode social norms within the larger reading audience and make people expect violence. Political leaders must speak out against this rhetoric or risk the fractures in U.S. democracy deepening, as well as the expectation of political violence moving from the fringes into the mainstream and into reality.

The Project

As the 2024 United States election approaches, public speech that moves people toward accepting and committing violence, what we call “dangerous speech” (DS), is flourishing, and with it, the risk of intergroup attacks. Working with a team of research fellows, we at the Dangerous Speech Project are collecting and analyzing dangerous speech targeting trans people, migrants, poll workers, and local election officials as well as examples of DS found in campaign ads, related to guns, and referencing the January 6th, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol and subsequent trials. Monthly, we release the findings to researchers, journalists, and practitioners working to prevent violence.

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